Confirmation Bias is looking for confirmation of a held belief; interpreting data as support for your beliefs. If you believe that garlic keeps away vampires, then you would interpret the absence of vampire attacks as evidence for your theory. If you believe that God designed humans, then you would interpret irregularities in the theory of evolution as evidence for your belief.

But the absence of vampire attacks itself isn’t evidence of anything. You would need to contrast that absence with the presence of attacks somewhere else.

I would like to believe that I am getting fitter. Of course. I want to get fitter. I think what I am doing is helping me. But is it? I made it all the way down from one of the longer lifts yesterday without stopping. Is that cuz I’m more fit now, or because my muscles have more stamina, or because I had more energy available to my muscles that day, or because my feet and ankles weren’t killing me? Riding in the powder today was exhausting. In powder, one raises the front of the board up by leaning on the back leg. It feels more like surfing. But it’s also hell on that back leg. Today told me I wasn’t as fit as I thought I was. But then again, I’m 230 pounds — am I more fit, or do I just weigh less? I haven’t run since I left Houston.

I would like to believe that Vit D3 is helping me ward of colds. In the hour or two after I take 4000 IU, my nasal congestion goes way. Then it comes back, and I take a couple more. How accurately am I keeping records? Is it just that I notice nasal congestion some times but not others? It’s been a persistant problem since I got here. Until Richard’s recent post on Vit D and colds, I was only taking 4000 IU a day. Now I’m taking 12, or more. Is it helping? Am I getting over new allergies? I’m I just giving credit for any improvement in my sinuses to D?

I will continue what I’m doing, but I’ve got to be cautious in my interpretations. More snow tonight, so I’ll hit the powder again first thing in the morning. I doubt my legs will improve greatly in the night – but I’ll be here for the season.